New Hampshire's Housing Market Dip: How Long?

The real estate market in New Hampshire isInformation (11.2%)
experiencing a slowdown in 2006. A question that isLeisure & Hospitality (11.1%)
often asked by both home buyers and home sellers isOther Services (5.5%)
"How long will the market be like this?" Although noSource: New England Economic Partnership
one can predict the future, it is helpful to take a look atPopulation growth for the state is at 0.9%2, on par
what is influencing the market.with the national average of 1.0% but well above the
People who are making a home buying or home sellinggrowth of surrounding states. The counties in the lakes
decision are often influenced by several factors.region are expected to have the largest growth
- Their job outlook -Will they have one and where will itthrough 2010. With increasing population comes
be located?demand for housing.
- Home Prices- Influenced by supply and demand,2. From Bureau of Labor Statistics obtained from the
population trends and interest ratesFDIC "State Profiles" NH Economic Profile Summer
- Interest rates- influences home affordability2006
So how does the future housing market look for NewMortgage interest rates are holding steady (just under
Hampshire?7% for a conventional 30 yr fixed mortgage) which
New Hampshire continues to have a strong jobshould take some of the downward pressure off the
market that is expected to outperform the other Newmarket. When interest rates increase buyers are more
England states and the national average.apt to hold off buying, or to offer a lower price due to
- State unemployment was at 3.4% for Q1 of 2006the higher monthly interest payments.
- Below the national average of 4.73%.1 Continuing aIn summary, New Hampshire has a growing job
trend seen since 2000 and one expected to continue.market coupled with changes in the types of jobs
The New England Economic Partnership (NEEP)available. This should cause more buying and selling in
projects employment growth:the market as people move with the jobs. There
- 0.8 percent in 2005should also be an overall increase in the demand for
- 2.2 percent in 2006housing due to the moderate growth in population.
- 1.1 percent in 2006Continued low interest rates should enable more
1. From a New Hampshire Economic Outlookbuyers to be able to afford a home. So it seems there
Presentation by Erica Menard (May 10,2006)is no fundamental reason for this slowdown except
Although New Hampshire is loosing its manufacturingfor the rising home prices which were out pacing the
industry (NEEP projects manufacturing employment toincrease in salaries over the last 3 years. This finally
continue to decline an average of 0.4% through 2007)caught up with us. As home prices stabilize or even
other industries are growing. The industries that arecome down a bit it should allow potential home buyers
expected to grow over the next 5 years are:to catch up. This slowdown may not last for very long,
Professional & Business Services (15.2%)perhaps only until the spring of 2007. But again, no one
Education & Health Services (14.8%)can foretell the future.